Macroeconomics
Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator
Estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap.
Inputs and results stay in this browser. Currency symbols are illustrative; use any consistent currency.
Understand Phillips curve
One idea, three depths
Choose how deeply to explain Phillips curve
Phillips curve: Estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap.
Age 5Explain it to a 5-year-oldStart with a picture
Imagine using Phillips curve to answer this question: estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap? Enter Expected inflation, Unemployment rate, Natural unemployment rate, and 1 other input; the calculator shows Estimated inflation. Try changing one number and watch what happens to Estimated inflation. The answer tells you Estimated inflation.
Age 15Explain it to a 15-year-oldConnect it to the formula
This short-run educational model omits supply shocks and does not imply a permanent inflation-unemployment trade-off. The rule is Inflation = Expected inflation − sensitivity × (unemployment − natural rate). Its input values are Expected inflation (%), Unemployment rate (%), Natural unemployment rate (%), Inflation sensitivity, and the main result is Estimated inflation. Try changing one number and watch what happens to Estimated inflation.
CollegeExplain it at college levelState the model precisely
This calculator evaluates a macroeconomics relationship while holding unmodelled conditions constant. The implemented relation is Inflation = Expected inflation − sensitivity × (unemployment − natural rate), evaluated from Expected inflation (%), Unemployment rate (%), Natural unemployment rate (%), Inflation sensitivity to produce Estimated inflation. This short-run educational model omits supply shocks and does not imply a permanent inflation-unemployment trade-off. The result depends on comparable definitions, units, populations and time periods. It estimates a relationship; it does not establish causation or replace current primary data.
The economic question
Estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap.
Why this relationship is useful
This short-run educational model omits supply shocks and does not imply a permanent inflation-unemployment trade-off.
Inputs that must be comparable
- Expected inflation measured in %.
- Unemployment rate (minimum 0) measured in %.
- Natural unemployment rate (minimum 0) measured in %.
- Inflation sensitivity (minimum 0).
Use one market, firm, population and time period throughout; mixing definitions can make a correctly calculated number economically meaningless.
The model
Inflation = Expected inflation − sensitivity × (unemployment − natural rate)
From inputs to output
The calculator combines Expected inflation, Unemployment rate, Natural unemployment rate, Inflation sensitivity and reportsEstimated inflation together with Unemployment gap. Change one assumption at a time to identify what actually drives the estimate.
How to read Estimated inflation
Read the sign, magnitude, unit and period together. The result quantifies the relationship in “estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap”; it does not by itself prove that one input caused another.
Where interpretation can fail
Do not use the result when the input definitions, units or formula assumptions do not match the real situation. This is an educational model, not financial, investment, tax or policy advice; verify material decisions against primary data and professional guidance.
Supporting sourcesAcademic referencesPrimary standards, textbooks and complete citations
Standards, reading and academic references
Use the calculator as the worked interaction, then consult the primary standards and academic textbooks listed below. MW SysArc links to the original sources; the explanation on this page is original and does not reproduce them.
Principles of Economics 3e
Read the free OpenStax economics textbookCite this book
- APA 7
- Greenlaw, S. A., Shapiro, D., & MacDonald, D. (2022). Principles of economics 3e. OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/principles-economics-3e/pages/1-introduction
- MLA 9
- Greenlaw, Steven A., et al. Principles of Economics 3e. OpenStax, 2022, https://openstax.org/books/principles-economics-3e/pages/1-introduction.
- Chicago author-date
- Greenlaw, Steven A., David Shapiro, and Daniel MacDonald. 2022. Principles of Economics 3e. Houston, TX: OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/principles-economics-3e/pages/1-introduction.
OpenStax entries are free to read online. Follow the licence shown on each linked source before redistributing or adapting its content.
Reuse the page responsiblyCite this pageAPA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, BibTeX and RIS
These formats cite this calculator page itself. They are separate from the academic references above, which support the mathematical method and terminology.
APA 7
MW SysArc. (2026, July 21). Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator. MW SysArc Tools. https://economics.mwsysarc.com/macro/expectations-augmented-phillips-curve
MLA 9
MW SysArc. “Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator.” MW SysArc Tools, 21 July 2026, https://economics.mwsysarc.com/macro/expectations-augmented-phillips-curve. Accessed 31 Aug. 2026.
Chicago 17
MW SysArc. “Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator.” MW SysArc Tools. Published July 21, 2026. Accessed August 31, 2026. https://economics.mwsysarc.com/macro/expectations-augmented-phillips-curve.
Harvard
MW SysArc (2026) ‘Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator’, MW SysArc Tools. Published 21 July 2026. Available at: https://economics.mwsysarc.com/macro/expectations-augmented-phillips-curve (Accessed: 31 August 2026).
BibTeX and RIS records
BibTeX
@misc{mwsysarc_phillips_curve_2026,
author = {{MW SysArc}},
title = {Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator},
howpublished = {MW SysArc Tools},
year = {2026},
url = {https://economics.mwsysarc.com/macro/expectations-augmented-phillips-curve},
note = {Published July 21, 2026; accessed August 31, 2026}
}RIS
TY - ELEC
AU - MW SysArc
TI - Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve Calculator
T2 - MW SysArc Tools
PY - 2026
DA - 2026-07-21
Y2 - 2026-08-31
UR - https://economics.mwsysarc.com/macro/expectations-augmented-phillips-curve
N1 - Published July 21, 2026
ER -Clear answers
Frequently asked questions
What does the Phillips curve do?
Estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap.
How does the Phillips curve work?
The calculator applies this formula: Inflation = Expected inflation − sensitivity × (unemployment − natural rate). This short-run educational model omits supply shocks and does not imply a permanent inflation-unemployment trade-off.
What can I learn from the Phillips curve?
It helps you explore the relationship described by this tool: Estimate inflation from expected inflation and the unemployment gap. Change one input at a time to observe how it affects the result.
Does MW SysArc receive or store what I enter?
No. The calculation runs locally in your browser. MW SysArc does not receive or store your calculation inputs.
How should I use the result?
Use the result as an estimate or educational aid. Check important financial, business or policy decisions with qualified sources and current data.
Last reviewed . Calculations tested .